Senior Predictive Modeler

Department: Actuarial Job Description: The Senior Predictive Modeler is responsible for designing, developing, and deploying advanced predictive models that drive strategic decision-making across the organization. This role partners closely with actuarial, finance, underwriting, and claim business leaders to translate complex business problems into scalable analytical solutions. The ideal candidate combines deep modeling expertise with strong business judgment and the ability to influence stakeholders. Work Arrangement: Employees who live within 30 miles of the TMG home office are expected to follow a hybrid or in-office schedule. The initial training period may require additional in‑office days. Accountabilities: Predictive Model Development: Design, develop, and optimize advanced predictive models using a broad range of statistical, machine learning, and actuarial techniques, including but not limited to GLMs, GBMs, random forests, time series, and survival models. Perform deep feature engineering, variable selection, and transformation to improve model stability, interpretability, and performance. Evaluate and compare candidate models using rigorous validation techniques, including cross-validation, back-testing, lift analysis, and sensitivity testing. Balance model accuracy, robustness, and explainability to ensure business usability and regulatory acceptance. Apply predictive models to influence complex business problems such as pricing, risk evaluation, customer lifetime value, demand forecasting, and operational efficiency in order to influence business decisions. Quantify business impact through financial metrics (e.g., lift, ROI, loss ratio improvement, margin improvement). Translate modeling outputs into clear recommendations and decision strategies for senior leaders. Model Governance, Validation & Monitoring: Own model documentation, assumptions, limitations, and versioning in alignment with internal governance standards. Partner with model validation, audit, and risk teams to support model reviews and respond to findings. Develop and maintain model performance monitoring frameworks, including drift detection, recalibration strategies, and retraining schedules. Ensure adherence to regulatory, ethical, and fairness standards, including bias detection and mitigation where applicable. Analytical Leadership: Serve as a subject matter expert on predictive modeling methodologies and best practices across the organization. Identify opportunities for new data sources, modeling enhancements, and advanced techniques to drive competitive advantage. Lead technical discussions, model reviews, and innovation initiatives within the analytics community. Establish modeling standards, reusable frameworks, and best practices to scale analytics capabilities. Mentor junior modelers and analysts on advanced modeling techniques, diagnostics, and storytelling. Review peer models and analyses, providing technical guidance and constructive feedback. Contribute to internal training, knowledge repositories, and analytics communities of practice. Qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, Actuarial Science, Data Science, or a related quantitative field. 5 to 8+ years of experience in predictive modeling, advanced analytics, or actuarial modeling. Strong proficiency with modeling techniques (e.g., regression, classification, survival models, machine learning). Advanced programming skills in one or more of the following: Python, R, SAS, SQL. Experience working with large datasets, data warehouses, or modern analytical data platforms. Strong analytical thinking and quantitative skills. Demonstrated experience translating analytical work into business impact. Excellent communication skills, including the ability to explain complex models to executive audiences. Pay Range: Anticipated Hiring Range: $120,000 - $200,000 annual base salary depending on experience, qualifications, and geographic location Benefits: We are proud to offer our full-time regular employees a robust benefits suite that includes: Competitive base salary plus incentive plans for eligible team members 401(K) retirement plan that includes a company match of up to 6% of your eligible salary Free basic life and AD&D, long-term disability and short-term disability insurance Medical, dental and vision plans to meet your unique healthcare needs Wellness incentives Generous time off program that includes personal, holiday and volunteer paid time off Flexible work schedules and hybrid/remote options for eligible positions Educational assistance Equal Opportunity Employer The Mutual Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is our policy to recruit, hire, train and promote individuals in all job classifications without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, veteran status, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity or any other characteristic protected by law. Know Your Rights: Workplace Discrimination is Illegal Your Rights Under USERRA Applicants requiring a reasonable accommodation due to a disability at any stage of the employment application process should contact [email protected] . Employment Verification The Mutual Group participates in the E-Verify program and will provide the federal government with your Form I-9 information to confirm that you are authorized to work in the U.S. You are protected from employment discrimination based on your citizenship status and national origin. E-Verify Program Overview E-Verify Participation Poster All offers of employment are contingent upon the successful completion of a background check. #TMG